FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
Research Project Description
Center Identification Number:
Project Title: FSUTMS Mode Choice Modeling: Factors
Affecting Transit Use and Access
Principal Investigator:
Principal
Investigators:
Dennis Hinebaugh,
Transit Program Director
813-974-9833
E-mail: hinebaugh@cutr.eng.usf.edu
Project
Contact:
Dr. Fang Zhao, PhD., P.E., Assoc. Professor/Assoc. Director
Lehman Center for Transportation Research, FIU
305-348-3821
E-mail: fang@eng.fiu.edu
Institution:
National Center for Transit Research (NCTR) at the Center
for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR)
University of South Florida
Tampa, Florida
External Project
Contact:
Ike Ubaka, Public
Transportation Office, FDOT
850-414-4500
E-mail: Ike.Ubaka@dot.state.fl.us
I. Project Objective
To develop a better understanding
of significant factors that affect transit ridership and attempt to
quantify such variables. This project will identify a set of variables
that may be incorporated into FSUTMS modal split procedure that will
result in improvement of transit ridership forecast by FSUTMS.
II. Project Abstract
It is difficult to obtain
accurate transit forecast from four-step models, resulting in
unrealistic expectations. Some possible causes include scarce of
transit ridership information, omission of socioeconomic and other
important factors in models, in accurate estimation of transit walk
and auto access. With the aid of GIS technologies, this project will
investigate the feasibility of incorporating more explanatory
variables that have been known to significantly influence transit
ridership in the existing FSUTMS modal split module to improve the
predictive power of the model.
III. Task Descriptions
It is the intent of the NCTR
at CUTR to subcontract this Work Order with the Lehman Center for
Transportation Research at Florida International University.
Task 1 - Literature Review
A review of current FSUTMS
mode choice models and existing literature on transit ridership
forecasting will be conducted. The focus will be on transit ridership
forecast, including the methodologies and the variables used. These
methodologies will be evaluated based on their complexity, the results
produced, the data requirements, relevance to FSUTMS, and ease of
adaptation for FSUTMS. Results from this task will be summarized in
Technical Memorandum 1.
Task 2 - Identification of
Potential Explanatory Variables
In this task variables that
potentially have a causal relationship with transit ridership will be
identified. In addition to the variables currently used in FSUTMS,
results from Task 1 will help identify additional variables. Potential
variables will include characteristics of the trip to be made,
characteristics of the person making the trip, characteristics of the
household the person resides, characteristics of the household area
(origin), characteristics of the transportation system,
characteristics of the destination area of the trip. Potential
variables will be evaluated based on two major considerations, i.e.,
whether data for the variables are readily available or can be
collected easily and economically for both base and forecast years,
and whether variables can be quantified accurately and reliably.
Findings from this task will also be reported in Technical Memorandum
1.
Task 3 - Identification and
Selection of Study Area(s)
In this task, suitable study
areas will be identified. It is expected that the study area(s) will
be located in the Southeast Florida region including the Miami-Dade
and Broward counties. Description and justification of the study
area(s) will be provided in Technical Memorandum 2, which will be
submitted to the project managers for approval.
Task 4 - Data Acquisition, Collection and
Processing
Data pertaining to the identified
variables and study area(s) will be acquired/collected and processed in
this task. Potential data include origin-destination trip survey data from
the Southeast Florida Travel Characteristics Study, transit onboard survey
from FDOT, socioeconomic data, land use data, DOQQs, transit route
information, transit ridership data, and the 1995 NPTS. The data
collection results will be reported in Technical Memorandum 3.
Task 5 - Transit Accessibility
Evaluation
For this task, the urban forms
will be studied from the viewpoint of transit walk accessibility, with
GIS utilized as the primary analysis tool. The task will involve the
selection of a set of TAZs that have various characteristics in terms
of land use, street configuration, and presence and types of barriers.
Analysis will then be made based on information such as street
configuration, land use type, land use pattern, land use intensity,
and transit onboard survey to derive typical accessibility measures
for different types of land uses that may be used for base year model
calibration and future year forecast. Auto access to transit will also
be studied to determine the typical lengths of auto access links, and
other possible factors that influence the distance a transit user may
be willing to drive for accessing transit services. The results of
this task will be reported in Technical Memorandum 4.
Task 6 - Selection of Explanatory
Variables
In this task, variables that
are significant in predicting transit ridership will be determined.
Various modeling techniques will be used to test the significance of
the variables in terms of their ability to influence transit
ridership. Two types of analysis distinguished by their use of data
sources will be performed. The first will be based on the trip survey
data from the Southeast Florida Travel Characteristics Study. The
second type of analysis will be based on the NPTS database.
Task 7 - Preparation of Final Report
and Research Dissemination
The final report will summarize
the findings and present the recommendations including how modelers around
the state can use the information from this project to better calibrate
and structure their mode split module in FSUTMS.
IV. Project Schedule, Milestones
Project Start Date:
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Task
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V. Total Project Budget
|
Inventory and Analysis of Advanced Public
Transportation
Systems in Florida |
|
Budget Categories |
State Share |
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Institute Director Salary |
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Faculty Salaries |
$55,900 |
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Administrative Staff Salaries |
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Other Staff Salaries |
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Graduate Student Salaries |
$18,000 |
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Undergraduate Salaries |
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Staff Benefits |
$16,470 |
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Total Salaries and Benefits |
$90,370 |
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Permanent Equipment |
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Expendable Equipment and Supplies |
$2,868 |
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Domestic Travel |
$2,000 |
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Foreign Travel |
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Computer Costs |
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Other Costs |
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Total Direct Costs |
$95,238 |
|
Indirect Costs (FIU) |
$4,762 |
| Total
Costs (Subcontract FIU) |
$100,000 |
| Indirect
Costs (USF) |
$5,000 |
|
TOTAL COSTS |
$105,000 |
Notes: This budget does not reflect any federal
participation.
The project team will include faculty, students, and secretarial and
other support staff who will work directly on the project and whose
costs are reflected in the direct costs of the project as listed above.
VI. Student Involvement
Graduate students will be used
to collect, enter, and compile data and assist in the data analysis.
VII. Relationship to Other Research Projects
A number of research projects
funded by FDOT and USDOT are relevant to this project. They deal with
assessment of transit system modeling in the State of Florida,
development of a short term transit ridership model that integrates
transit demand and supply, transit level of service, and definition of
transit capacity and service quality. The results of these projects will
be carefully examined and incorporated into this research when useful.
VIII. Technology Transfer Activities/Peer Review
The results of this analysis will
be provided to the FDOT through a series of technical memoranda and a
final report. Copies of the final report will be provided to the Research
Office, the State Public Transportation Administrator, Manager of the
Transit Office, and the Florida Model Task Force members.
IX. Potential Benefits of the Project
The benefits of the project
include identification and quantification of factors that affect transit
ridership. This information can then be used to improve the travel demand
models in better forecasting of transit use.
X.
TRB Keywords
Public transit, modeling, demand
estimation, FSUTMS
|
813.974.5168 fax