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Validating T-BEST Models with 100% APC Counts
The current version of the Transit Boarding Estimation and
Simulation Tool (T-BEST) uses a set of boarding equations that
were estimated with a small sample of boarding data. In
addition, it uses an overall weekday peak that combines the
morning and afternoon peaks. This report documents a research
effort in re-estimating a set of boarding equations for T-BEST
to achieve two objectives. One objective was to use boarding
data that are far more reliable than what were used in
estimating the current set of boarding equations. The other
objective was to make improvements in the boarding equations.
Both objectives have been successfully achieved. The first
objective has been achieved through using boarding data from a
fleet of bus vehicles that had an APC penetration rate around 75
percent. The second objective has been achieved through many
improvements in the boarding equations. Among these improvements
is the separation of the current overall weekday peak into a
morning peak and an afternoon peak. The re-estimated boarding
equations perform well in terms of both how well the models fit
the data and how observed and in-sample predictions compare.
However, serious over-predictions can occur at a small number of
stops, and these cases of over-prediction need to be dealt with
individually as part of the validation process in each
application of T-BEST.
A copy of the final report is
available here in pdf format, and in
HTML format. For more information,
contact Xuehao Chu at xchu@cutr.usf.edu.
05.22.07
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813.974.5168 fax